Which Way to Turn on Metra Access?

Deciding which way to turn on Metra's temporary access in Elburn is a difficult decision. There is an acronym called "SCRIPTS" that was designed specifically to help decision-makers sort through the options and make the tough calls.

"SCRIPTS" stands for search for signals, find the causes, evaluate the risks, apply intuition, take different perspectives, consider the time frame, and solve the problem.

Let's apply the "SCRIPTS" decision making model to Elburn's temporary Metra access issue:

Search for Signals-By searching for signals, we are looking for opportunities and threats. Selecting the southeast side of Elburn for a temporary Metra access will give us a new street, new sidewalks, a stoplight with intersection improvements, and a sight and sound reducing berm surrounding the entire Metra coachyard. Those improvements represent a $1.8 million dollar infrastructure investment in our community. Deals like this one don't come around very often. On the other hand, choosing this option has a potential to temporarily increase traffic congestion, increase neighborhood safety concerns, and has already upset most of our residents on the southeast side.

Find the Causes-What can we identify as the root "cause" of this temporary access dilemma? The answer is basically one of "delay." There has been a delay in transit oriented development decisions for the property surrounding our future train station. This is likely a good thing, because it keeps Elburn from growing too fast.

There has also been a delay in securing the Federal funding needed for the future Anderson Road overpass. When dealing with Washington DC, the delay in obtaining TEA-LU funding for Elburn's bridge was as we expected.

Finally, there was a delay in determining if the Grove/Elburn land speculators who control a potential Fourth Street easement would grant us a street right-of-way there. In fact, that last issue of "delay" was the "one and only" reason that the Kansas Street alternative is even being mentioned as a last minute option.

Evaluate the Risks-Here we should estimate the cost of a "missed opportunity" versus the cost of an "needless blunder." If the village board does nothing, and Metra builds the Anderson Road access, clearly we missed obtaining $1.8 million dollars of community investment. We might get the $800,000 berm back from a future developer, but the street, sidewalk, and intersection improvement dollars are gone for good.

If we choose either of the southeast side temporary access routes, and it doesn't work out well for our community, the cost of the "needless blunder" is largely "political." People on the southeast side will likely be upset with the village board for many years. It is quite probable that the Metra temporary access will significantly increase the property values of their homes, but the residents have made it clear that they don't want any Metra traffic in their neighborhood.

Apply Intuition-The intuitive and emotional side of this decision was expressed passionately by the residents who attended our village board meeting last Monday night. They don't like it. They expressed their concerns about increased vehicle counts, and the potential for more speeders. They were also concerned about resident parking and safety in their neighborhood, about their children playing and going to school, and about mature trees that might have to be removed to make way for the street repairs. At a separate meeting when one resident was asked, "What would it take to make this temporary access worthwhile to your neighborhood?" That person replied, "Nothing!"

My own intuition tells me that a temporary Metra access won't have as dire an effect on the neighborhood as some of the southeast side residents predict. I also believe that there are many things that we as a village can do to mitigate the negative effects of the temporary access on the southeast neighborhood as a whole.

But, I definitely respect and understand the emotional side of this issue. I lived in the Judge Landis house at 425 S. First Street on the southeast side of Elburn for 16 years. Many drivers used First Street to avoid Route 47 when I lived there, just as they do now. And, yes, concerned about their safety, I walked my boys to the school bus stops, too.

Take Different Perspectives-It's important to look at any difficult decision-making process from different perspectives. As I mentioned at last Monday night's meeting, $1.8 million dollars represents over three years of property taxes to a village trustee.

The southeast side neighbors expressed their concerns about increased Metra traffic in their neighborhood, and they have mobilized to stop the temporary access, regardless of the infrastructure improvements offered to them.

Our Elburn Chamber of Commerce really hasn't spoken as yet, but obviously sending the Metra traffic out to Keslinger and Anderson is not likely to increase their sales or the village's share of retail tax revenues.

And lastly, what about our residents who do not live on the southeast side? Eventually, the streets and sidewalks on the southeast will have to be repaired, regardless of the the Metra temporary access decision, and that future cost will be shared by everyone. Many people have told me that they think accepting the improved infrastructure is a great deal for Elburn. But, they also point out that they don't live on the southeast side.

Consider the Time Frame-I feel that the "T" in the "SCRIPTS" acronym represents perhaps the most critical element of the Metra temporary access decision. We keep calling this a "temporary" access decision, and yet the hard truth is that the word "temporary" probably means a lot longer than any of us imagine. Knowing full well that the Grove/Elburn Partnership controls the property around the future Metra station, I truly doubt that we will reach any kind of an agreement on that property in the near future. The best that I can say is that, if selected, this access through our southeast side would be "indeterminate" in nature. With Terry Grove on the other side of the negotiating table, we could be stuck with this southeast side temporary Metra access for a long, long time. And that's just telling it like it is.

Solve the Problem-The final "S" in "SCRIPTS" says to "solve the problem." To make the final decision we can compare a computed "probability of success" to an estimated "risk ratio." I wish it was that easy.

In Star Trek, Mr. Spock tells Captain Kirk, "Jim, the needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few." So clearly Vulcan logic favors accepting the offered infrastructure improvements on behalf of the entire community, and making the best of the temporary access.

But, what about the indeterminate timing issue? It may well be that the very best interests of Elburn are not to be pressured by Mr. Grove, or anybody else, to prematurely develop around our future Metra station. That scenario definitely favors locating the access off Keslinger Road for now, and waiting patiently for the best transit oriented development plans to materialize.

Personally, I would feel much more confident accepting Metra's infrastructure offer, if I could promise the southeast side residents that the primary Metra access route would definitely open within the next 18-24 months. This moment, as I write, I cannot make that promise, or even conceive that a 24 month time frame would be possible.

At last week's village board meeting, someone shouted out that this decision was a "no brainer." I hope after reading this blog that the interested reader will agree with me that the temporary Metra access decision is definitely not that simple.

The "SCRIPTS" acronym helps decision-makers sort through the issues, but it doesn't make the call for you. Making good decisions is more art than science. The Elburn Village Board will make the decision about Metra access this coming week. Our trustees are all honest sincere community-minded individuals. I have great confidence that their collective wisdom will in fact make the "right" decision for Elburn.

Note: The "SCRIPTS" acronym used in this analysis was taken from the book The Art of High-Stakes Decision-Making by Keith Murninghan and John Mowen. This book was graciously given to me by Joe Martin, Director of Dental Society Services at the American Dental Association. "Joe, I read the book."