How Many More Huts by 2030?

Huts on Fanning Island Originally uploaded by jlwilley.

So, how many more "huts" do we have to build in America by 2030. The answer is really pretty scary. This information comes from a metropolitan policy e-bulletin I received last week from the Brookings Institute. Their conclusions are taken from an article by Arthur C. Nelson titled "Toward a New Metropolis: The Opportunity to Rebuild America."

Dr. Nelson predicts that fully half of the built environment in which Americans will live, work and play in 2030 doesn't even exist yet. In the next 25 years, America will need to create over 200 billion square feet of built space to accomodate our current growth projections.

The "bad news" for communities like Elburn experiencing "collar county" growth pressure is that most of the space predicted to be built between 2005 and 2030 will take the form of more new homes. The "good news" for those of us in the Midwest is that most of that new residential growth is projected to occur in the South and the West.

Concerning the Midwest, Dr Nelson's study predicts continued stagnation of "big" cities with sprawling land consumption continuing in outlying areas. He further expects that suburban sprawl will likely erode the overall competiveness of whole metropolitan regions. That sounds like a "bullseye" on what we seem to be going through here in Chicagoland.

Dr. Nelson further asserts that demand is increasing for more compact, walkable, quality living, entertainment and work environments. He states that the challenge for local leaders is to create the right market, land use and regulatory climates to accomodate sustainable growth. He also concludes, that there may be no better time than right now to reshape American communities for the next generation.

We can see some of these problems coming at us in the near future. Two critical questions remain. Are we smart enough to recognize what sprawl is doing not only to our communities, but also to our region? And, are we bold enough to work together to do something about it?